By Michael Wax
It's that time of the year again.
As the NHL regular season is about to get underway, many Lightning prospects have started their next development season. These prospects have various destinations, whether in the OHL, NCAA, the AHL, or beginning the year with the big club in the NHL. The Lightning saw an influx of prospects make their roster at some point last season, with seven names making their NHL debuts or reappearance on the roster, one of the largest numbers in Tampa Bay Lightning history.
Names like Waltteri Merelä, Jack Thompson, Gage Goncalves, and Max Crozier all made their NHL debuts last season after appearing on the prospect pyramid, all having various degrees of success. Even guys like Emil Lilleberg and Declan Carlile made impacts despite not even being on the prospect pyramid at all last year. Just because you’re on the prospect pyramid doesn’t mean it’ll be all rainbows and sunshine, and just because you’re off it doesn’t mean it’s all doom and gloom. This year, the Lightning have some exciting additions to the prospect pyramid, including one name that you will see on the opening night roster.
Before we get to the pyramid itself, let’s look at which players are no longer on the prospect pyramid and why:
Hugo Alnefelt - Free Agent
When the Lightning drafted Hugo Alnefelt in the 3rd round of the 2019 NHL draft, many saw a high-ceiling goaltender that could potentially be the backup to Andrei Vasilevskiy in the future. Although Alnefelt got into one NHL game, he really struggled at the AHL level, getting replaced in back-to-back years down the stretch; first by Maxime Lagace in 2022-23, then by ECHL starter Brandon Halverson last year. With the writing on the wall, Alnefelt is now with HV71 Jonkoping in the Swedish Hockey League, although the Lightning do have his rights if he ever wants to come back to North America.
Jack Thompson - Traded
Jack Thompson was someone who had a lot of promise for the Lightning, making his NHL debut against the Boston Bruins last February. In probably the easiest explanation as to why someone isn’t on the pyramid, they dealt him at the trade deadline to the San Jose Sharks in exchange for Anthony Duclair Thompson still has a bright future ahead of him, it just won’t be with the Lightning.
Cole Koepke - Free Agent
Koepke suited up for the Lightning for 28 games over two seasons, including his first NHL goal against the Washington Capitals back in the 2022-23 season. This summer, Koepke signed with the Boston Bruins, and made their opening night lineup in the bottom six.
Waltteri Merelä - Free Agent
Merelä was an interesting one in his lone season in Tampa. After signing over the summer last year, Merelä made the opening night roster but had a difficult time contributing on the scoresheet. After spending some time in Syracuse, he was called back up and put up his first NHL goal with no assists. Despite helping the Syracuse Crunch in their playoff run, the 26-year-old left the Lightning in free agency, signing with Bern SC of the Swiss-A league.
Eamon Powell - Free Agent
As someone who watched a lot of Eamon Powell while in college, I thought Powell would be a great addition to the Lightning blue line. Unfortunately, Powell decided to stay at Boston College for a fifth season, letting his rights expire before the Lightning could get him signed to an entry-level contract.
Gabriel Fortier - Free Agent
As the second round pick in the 2018 draft, Gabriel Fortier showed a lot of promise early on in his junior career. Since his full-time arrival with the Syracuse Crunch back in 2020-21 though, Fortier has really struggled to make that next impact. With decent, but not spectacular, scoring numbers in the AHL, coupled with 11 NHL games over two seasons, Fortier was going to have to make a giant impact early on anyways, and a shoulder injury that will keep him out until mid-December did him no favors. While it’s possible that he makes the NHL roster at some point again, he’s got an uphill battle ahead of him.
Before we start with the actual pyramid, I want to thank Steve Dangle for coming up with this idea with the Toronto Maple Leafs back in 2016. That being said, let’s get started:
Tier 1: No one
Tier one is reserved for your star prospects. Unfortunately, for the Lightning, they don’t have any. Names like Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, Matvei Michkov, and Jesper Wallstedt are all A-tier prospects for their respective organizations. All the Lightning have been able to win, and they've been able to do well with their spare parts, so it’s been a long time since they’ve had a star prospect.
Tier 2: Conor Geekie, Isaac Howard
Conor Geekie has taken the Lightning by storm since his arrival from the Utah Hockey Club back in June. Drafted 12th overall by the then-Arizona Coyotes back in 2022, Geekie shined with an excellent Rookie Showcase and even better preseason to earn his way onto the Lightning roster for opening night. We saw a bit of everything during the preseason, from scoring the game-winning goal of the rush against Florida, to scoring shorthanded in that same game, to sticking up for his captain with a fight against the Panther later in the preseason. At 6’4”, he’s got a wicked shot and will be the first to rebounds. Like with most of the players on this pyramid, the Lightning have used him in a multitude of situations, and he’s thrived in every single one of them. If there’s one knock against his game, it’s his skating, but coach Barb Underhill will most likely be able to help with that. Thanks to his talent coupled with his work ethic, we will be seeing Connor Geekie and his pink visor suit up for the Tampa Bay Lightning tomorrow night.
Isaac Howard makes his second appearance in Tier 2 in two seasons. This time, he's not alone. Still the only Lightning-made first round pick in the pipeline, Howard still has an abundance of skill, and a very good shot to be a regular in the Tampa Bay Lightning lineup at some point. This past season with the Big Ten champion Michigan State Spartans, Howard put up just eight goals, but added 28 assists for 36 points in 36 games. He matured defensively as well, something that was questioned when the Lightning selected him in the first round in 2022. His big coming out party came during the 2023 World Juniors, where he put up seven goals in seven games on route to a gold medal for the United States. Already with three goals and five points in just two games with Michigan State in his junior college, this might be the final year before we see the Ice Man put on Lightning blue and white.
Tier 3 - Dylan Duke, Ethan Gauthier, Nico Huuhtanen, Gage Goncalves, Max Groshev
Tier 3 now has five prospects. There are three mainstays from last year, a riser, and an addition.
The fourth round selection during the 2021 draft by the Lightning, Dylan Duke had another very good season with the Michigan Wolverines in the NCAA. Duke led the Wolverines in goals with 26, and finished third on the team in points with 49. Duke put together a star performance in the Wolverines' semifinal victory over Isaac Howard’s Michigan State Spartans, putting up two goals and an assist to lead the Wolverine to the semifinals. After they lost in the semifinals, Duke signed his entry level contract with the Syracuse Crunch, going scoreless in three regular season games before putting up two assists in five playoff games. Duke is never gonna be the biggest player on the ice, and will probably need to get stronger in order to maintain puck possession at the professional level. That being said, he’ll start his first full professional season with the Syracuse Crunch, hopefully making an impact right away.
Sometimes, all it takes is a playoff run to cement yourself in a higher echelon. After another solid regular season in the QMJHL, his first with the Drummondville Voltigeurs, Gauthier destroyed the QMJHL playoffs with 14 goals and 25 points in 19 games on their way to a championship. He ran with that success into the Rookie Showcase and preseason, forming a dynamic trio with formally mentioned Conor Geekie, as well as Gage Goncalves. Gauthier can play anywhere, has a very solid two way game, and has the skill to potentially make the Lightning top six one day. For now, he’s headed back to Junior for his final year of eligibility before hopping on over to professional hockey.
After a very strong rookie season over in Jukurit of the Finnish Liiga in 2022-23, Niko Huuhtanen took an even bigger jump in his second professional season. The forward dominated for the large part of the year, slightly increasing his goal output, but more than doubling his assist output for 46 points in 52 games, leading Jukurit in points at just 20 years old. He did struggle in those playoffs, with just two assists in six games and a mind-shattering 33 penalty minutes. At signing an ATO with the Syracuse Crunch after Jukurit was eliminated, he put up two assist in four games during their playoff run. Now on his entry-level deal, Huuhtanen is a big time power forward, something that we don’t typically see in the NHL all that much anymore. His skating isn’t great, but it is improved from where it was last year. And his first full season in North America, there’s no doubt that he’ll be paired with a very skilled duo and will have the opportunity under head coach Joel Bouchard to run wild on a pretty inexperienced Crunch team.
Expect to see Gage Goncalves on the Lightning roster at some point this season. After a 54 point performance in 2022-23 with the Syracuse Crunch, Goncalves followed that up with a 13 goal, 58 point performance the very next season. By all intents and purposes, he was the best forward on the Syracuse Crunch, leading the team in points by 19, making the AHL All-Star game, and bringing them to the second round of the playoffs with six points in seven playoff games as well. Goncalves also saw his first NHL action, getting into two games with the Lightning while also making a name for himself in his NHL debut, coming to the defense of Erik Cernak after a dirty hit. He continued his excellent showing in both the Rookie Showcase and the preseason, typically being on a line with Conor Geekie and Ethan Gauthier. He’s an excellent passer, is not afraid to get in your face, and showed both in the Rookie Showcase and the preseason that he can play all facets of the game. He’ll start the year in Syracuse, but don’t be surprised if he’s called up soon.
For the life of me, I have no idea how I forgot Maxime Groshev in last year’s prospect pyramid. Even worse, he was completely destroying the league in the Rookie Showcase and the preseason at the time. Groshev was selected in the third round of the 2020 NHL draft by the Lightning, and finally made his way over to North American ice in 2023-24. He started off hot with 13 points and 13 games, along with a hat trick against the Bridgeport Islanders on November 14. While the rest of his rookie season on North American ice wasn’t as strong, with just 17 points in the remaining 54 regular season games and one assist in seven playoff games, he showed some fantastic 5-5 scoring, with 26 of his 30 points coming at even strength. Groshev once again showed up big time during both the 2024 Rookie Showcase and the preseason, this time being one of the final cuts when they trimmed the roster. If he has a strong start in Syracuse, and the right opportunity opens up, don’t be surprised if you see him wearing a Lightning sweater sooner rather than later.
Tier 4 - Declan Carlile, Joona Saarelainen, Daniil Pylenkov, Max Crozier, Jayson Shaugabay
Declan Carlile is a prospect I’m super high on even though he’s in Tier 4. Carlile made his NHL debut last year and played in just one game, but looked oddly comfortable next to Darren Raddysh. This was the start of the influx of new young talent the Lightning saw last season, so Carlile being at the forefront even for just a game was a welcome sight. Back in the AHL with Syracuse, Carlile put up seven goals and 27 points in 61 games while being a very responsible two-way defenseman. Carlile is your everyman when it comes to the defensive side, being able to block shots, get a stick in the passing lanes, and making the right play in transition most of the time. He’s set to have another year in Syracuse, but with some question marks on the Lightning’s defensive side of things, don’t be surprised if he gets another cup of coffee in the NHL.
You might not know the name Joona Saarelainen. After all, he was the fifth round selection in this most recent draft by the Tampa Bay Lightning. At just 5‘9“, and 18 years old, Saarelainen is an excellent net front presence. He’s also a really good skater, something that the Lightning have never really drafted before and have had to always develop. Like most others in this pyramid, he can play anywhere, and he’s got a good shot as well. It’s a mystery how the Lightning ended up getting such a talented player in the fifth round, but the Bolts will certainly take it. He played with the junior version of KalPa Kuopio last season, putting up 36 points and in games, and adding one assist in eight games for the main roster KalPa Kuopio as the youngest member of the roster last season.
Probably the least talked about prospect in the entire Lightning organization, Daniil Pylenkov is a very solid defender, who has a real upside in helping the Lightning in future seasons. Though he’s just 24 years old, Pylenkov has been the a defenseman in the KHL for six seasons. In a league that is very difficult for young players to make a roster and stick on it, the fact that Pylenkov has been so reliable speaks to the type of player that he is. He is a very good two-way defenseman, is exceptional in the neutral zone, and is not afraid to engage in a board battle to win loose pucks. The question when it comes to Pylenkov is whether or not the Lightning can convince the young defenseman to leave the KHL following this season and sign his entry-level contract with the Bolts.
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It’s weird having Max Crozier here. After all, he played in 13 games for the Lightning during the regular season and even slotted in some playoff games, and never once looked out of place. However, with a demotion back to Syracuse to start the season, you could technically still list him as a prospect as he hasn’t met the required amount of games played. Crozier is an excellent defensive defenseman. As noted earlier, he did not look at a place at all during his time with the Lightning. It’s a testament to not only the Lightning’s development staff, but also the work that Crozier put in over at Providence College before making the jump professionally. To be able to quickly rise the ranks in the AHL and become an NHLer so soon is an impressive feat. I’d expect to see him back with the Lightning at some point this season, as he showed last year the skills to be able to supersede some of the guys that are currently in the opening night lineup.
Once again, Jayson Shaugabay has found himself in Tier 4 of the prospect pyramid. In a very solid showing with the Green Bay Gamblers of the United States Hockey League, Shaugabay put up 15 goals and 55 points in 62 games, and was an explosive player on the power-play. One of the most dynamic offensive players in the Lightning‘s pipeline, his puck skills are unmatched, and his skill allows for his teammates to become hidden for easy passes and assists. He’s already making waves over at the University of Minnesota Duluth, with two goals in his firs- ever college game. Shaugabay will spend this year and probably next year at UMD before making the jump to the professional level.
Tier 5 - Jack Finley, Connor Kurth, Dyllan Gill, Lucas Edmonds, Jack Harvey, Hagen Burrows
Jack Finley is a very difficult prospect to diagnose. The second round pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft hasn’t flown off the page at any point during his time in both the WHL or the AHL, though he did put up a solid 32 points in 52 games with the Crunch last season. He’s a decent passer, he’s a pretty good defensive center, and at 6'6", is an absolute menace when it comes to being a net front presence. The story with Finley, at just 22 years old, is health. Finley missed 5 games in his first professional season, 20 games last year, and is scheduled to be out until at least mid-December following off-season surgery.
Connor Kurth’s most recent season saw him skate in 37 games with the Minnesota Golden Gophers of the NCAA, putting up a career-high in assists with 14 and points with 21. Kurth also saw himself with an assist in the first round of the NCAA tournament against Omaha, the second time in two tries where he was a playoff producer, after helping Minnesota to the national championship game back in 2022-23. He’s a prospect that has shown flashes, but it’ll be a make-or-break season to see if he’s one of the prospects the Lightning really believe in going forward.
Another seventh round selection, Dyllan Gill was hurt for the majority of his season last year, but was one of the more impressive players in the Rookie Showcase and preseason for the Lightning. He showed a willingness to jump in the play in the offensive zone, which resulted in positive production, and was a very good puck mover as well. He’s a difficult prospect to place simply because of his injury history, but will continue to rise up the ranks in terms of Lightning defenders.
After a solid showing in his first year of professional hockey with Syracuse back in 2022-23, Lucas Edmunds took a massive step back in all avenues of production, and saw himself as a healthy scratch for all,but one playoff game for the Lightning’s farm team. This is a make or break year for Edmonds, who had a solid showing in the Rookie Showcase, but didn’t necessarily impress in preseason and will be one of the leaders of the team at just 23 years old thanks to the plethora of injuries the Crunch are dealing with.
Jack Harvey is a very interesting prospect to try and diagnose. The Lightning’s seven round selection in the 2023 NHL Draft, Harvey was a healthy scratch for most of the first half of the NCAA season with the Boston University Terriers. However, after becoming a first line player for a single game against Boston College on January 27, Harvey remained in the lineup and on the top line with future number one overall pick Macklin Celebrini. Harvey would end up finishing his freshman year with Boston University with seven goals and 15 points in 20 games, including a goal in the first round against RIT and a goal in the quarterfinals against the University of Minnesota. He’s a very skilled player, but it remains to be seen if his production was driven by Celebrini. He’ll start on the third line in his sophomore season with Boston University, and hopefully will be one of the better players to drive them towards a championship.
Our final member of the prospect pyramid is the second member of their 2024 draft class. In the United States Hockey League in 2023-24, Hagen Burrows put up seven goals and 15 points in 20 games with a very impressive +14 rating, showing a very solid two-way game. Sometimes, it’s not about who scores, but who makes the little plays that end up winning the game, and Burrows is the prime example of that. Coming out of high school, he still has a long way to go in his career, but he’s set to begin his collegiate career with the raining national champion Denver Pioneers of the NCAA.
Tier 6 - Everyone else
Just because you’re not on the pyramid doesn’t mean that you can’t eventually make an impact to the Lightning at the NHL level. In the last year alone, we saw Declan Carlile and Emil Lilleberg both make the jump to the NHL, and neither were a part of the original prospect pyramid. Guys like Gabriel Szturc, Noah Steen, Harrison Meneghin, and Jan Golicic could end up making the pyramid next year following a strong showing. It’s just a matter of patience, and waiting and seeing how these prospects develop.
That is it for this addition of the Lightning prospect pyramid. A huge thanks to The Athletic, Elite Prospects, and Future Bolts on Twitter for their excellent analysis and coverage of some of these prospects that will hopefully make an impact at the NHL level one day.
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