The 2025-26 Tampa Bay Lightning Prospect Pyramid

By Michael Wax

With the NHL preseason concluded and the Lightning’s roster set, the Lightning's prospects have had another opportunity to showcase themselves.

Last season, prospects to make their NHL debuts for the Lightning included Conor Geekie, Jack Finley, and Dylan Duke. Declan Carlile and Max Crozier got another cup of coffee, while Gage Goncalves took a massive step in a real audition with the big club. As stated last year, just because you’ve made the pyramid doesn’t mean you’re a lock for NHL stardom, and just because you’ve been excluded from this pyramid doesn’t mean the sky is falling. 

Before we get to the pyramid itself, let’s look at which players are no longer on the prospect pyramid and why:

Isaac Howard - Traded

Once the prized prospect in the Lightning's system, Howard enjoyed a Hobey Baker-winning season at Michigan State University before determining that he did not want to suit up for the Lightning. With their backs against the wall and losing the talented forward for nothing becoming a very credible possibility, the Lightning traded their top prospect to the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for Sam O'Reilly over the summer.

Conor Geekie - Graduated

As the other top prospect in the Bolts' system heading into the 2024-25 season, Geekie made the opening night roster. Geekie had time on the main roster from October 11 to February 1, putting up six goals and six assists for 12 points in 49 games before being sent down to AHL Syracuse. A trip down to Syracuse to work on his game was exactly what he needed, totaling 20 points in 24 AHL games and scoring in back-to-back games following his recall to the Lightning on April 13. Geekie will look to continue his late-season surge in his sophomore season.

Gage Goncalves - Graduated

Another prospect who saw time in both leagues last year, Goncalves really struggled in his first real NHL stint, compiling just two points in 26 games with the Lightning. He was re-assigned to the Crunch on January 13, with four goals and four assists in just six AHL appearances before getting the recall. Goncalves rewarded the Lightning with a respectable seven goals and 11 assists for 18 points in the remaining 34 regular-season games, good for a .53 points per game average, and helped the Lightning to a 21-8-5 record over that stretch.

Goncalves would continue his hot stretch into the playoffs, with four points in the Lightning's five-game series against the Panthers. Much like Geekie, Goncalves will have an opportunity to take a jump in 2025-26.

Lucas Edmonds - Traded

Lucas Edmonds had a spot on the Prospect Pyramid last year, a low-risk, high-reward 3rd-round pick from 2022. Edmonds floundered in his third season in Syracuse, registering a single goal and four assists in 26 games with the Crunch before being dealt to the Hartford Wolf Pack.

Max Crozier - Graduated

Crozier is someone who hasn’t graduated based on the number of games played, but rather on age. 

Already 25, Crozier spent parts of three seasons in AHL Syracuse and had two stints in Tampa over two seasons. While he hasn’t put together a ton of time in the NHL, this year really does feel like a last chance to prove Crozier can be an NHL regular. Crozier did crack the opening night lineup, a good first step in that goal.

Before we start with the actual pyramid, I want to thank Steve Dangle for coming up with this idea with the Toronto Maple Leafs back in 2016. That being said, let’s get started:

Before we start with the actual pyramid, I want to thank Steve Dangle for coming up with this idea with the Toronto Maple Leafs back in 2016. That being said, let’s get started:

Tier 1: No one

Another year where the Lightning don’t have any superstar prospects. Such is the price of winning. 

Tier 2: No one

Unfortunately for the Bolts, their two tier-two prospects from last season are no longer eligible: Howard was traded, and Geekie has become a permanent part of the main roster team. While there was a new crop of draftees and signings, no one has stepped into the role of becoming a tier two prospect for the Lightning heading into 2025-26.

Tier 3 - Sam O'Reilly, Ethan Czata, Dylan Duke, Ethan Gauthier

Tier 3 has four prospects. There are two mainstays from last year and two additions.

• Sam O'Reilly - Now the number one prospect in the Lightning’s prospect pool, Sam O’Reilly is a new face to the Lightning’s prospect ranks, but not a draft pick. The young forward was acquired from the Edmonton Oilers in the aforementioned Isaac Howard deal. O’Reilly had an excellent 2024-25 with the OHL’s London Knights, putting up 28 goals and 71 points in 62 games and an absurd +56, while adding 22 points in 17 playoff games en route to an OHL championship. O’Reilly profiles as a solid two-way forward, one who is defensively responsible and good on the PK. Back in the OHL for another year, O’Reilly has two goals in four games at the time of this writing.

• Ethan Czata - Ethan Czata was selected in the second round of the 2025 NHL draft with the pick acquired in the Tanner Jeannot trade. A skilled two-way forward, Czata drew rave reviews from the whole fanbase, especially when comparing himself to a “Brandon Hagel-type” player. While early in the OHL season, it looks like the 18-year-old has already taken an offensive step forward this season, with six goals and eight points in five games. Czata is signed to his ELC, but the Lightning can take their time with such an important piece of their future.

• Dylan Duke - In the third tier for a second straight year, Dylan Duke expanded upon his pro debut in 2023-24 by playing 62 games in his first full season in Syracuse. Duke went 20-20-40 in his first pro season, even earning a call-up to the Lightning in the back half of the season. Duke even scored his first career goal in his first career game against Detroit, one of two games he played for the big club during his brief call-up. Duke’s tenacity and willingness to learn and grow through the Lightning’s system has clearly put him in the team’s good graces, and he looks to build on that in another season with the Crunch.

• Ethan Gauthier - Gauthier could end up being a star for the Lightning if all goes right. The 2023 2nd round selection once again averaged above a point-per-game in both the QMJHL regular season and playoffs before suiting up for three games with the Crunch at the end of their regular season. Get excited for Gauthier, and you may see him in a Lightning jersey at some point soon.

Tier 4 - Connor Kurth, Niko Huuhtanen, Jack Finley, Benjamin Rautiainen, Declan Carlile, Daniil Pylenkov

• Connor Kurth - Our first riser, Connor Kurth, has come out of nowhere over the past three seasons. After solid contributions in the bottom six for the University of Minnesota over his first two seasons, Kurth got an increase in role in his junior year, and responded with an increase in production. Kurth’s 18 goals were more than his prior two seasons combined, and second on the Golden Gophers to only the Blues’ 1st rounder Jimmy Snuggerud. His 39 points were tied for second, along with Nashville’s first-round pick, Matthew Wood. In the case of Kurth, he was a sixth-round pick. Signed to his ELC, Kurth will look to make a statement in his first full year in the AHL after a small stint last year.

• Niko Huuhtanen - Niko Huuhtanen had a tough rookie year in the AHL after a successful two years in pro hockey overseas. Huuhtanen was essentially stapled to the bottom six with the Crunch, with power-play time as well. A strong power forward, he put up eight goals and 20 points in 51 games, all while managing a solid if not spectacular defensive game. Huuhtanen will start the year on the injured list for the Lightning, but figures to have an increased role with the Crunch once he gets healthy. 

• Jack Finley - Jack Finley, once again, had a tough year to diagnose. The 23-year-old put up a career high 14 goals in just 40 games with the Crunch, and was on pace to shatter his points pace. Therein lies the problem:  health. Finley has continually battled injuries during his time in the lightning system, never properly showcasing his full skill set. At 6 ft 6 and 227 pounds with skills to play both power play and penalty kill, Finley profiles as the perfect archetype for a superstar. He even skated in his NHL debut last season and is slated to make the opening night roster.  If he's healthy, the Lightning could have a very versatile player on their hands.

• Benjamin Rautiainen - Another new face to the Lightning’s prospect pool, Benjamin Rautiainen was selected in the fourth round of the 2025 NHL draft. Rautiainen saw an increase in role and responsibility in his time with Tappaea of Liiga. The biggest highlight during his draft selection was his passing ability, and he has already demonstrated it with 10 assists in nine games in his most recent season in Liiga. Rautiainen even put up double-digit goals last season, part of a very balanced scoring attack for his team that had eight double-digit goal scorers. Not the most defensively sound, he's got plenty of room to grow, and it might be a few seasons before he's seen in Tampa, but the sky is high for such a prolific passer.

• Declan Carlile - Another Lightning prospect who saw time with the big club last year, Declan Carlile, is a prospect who could see significant time at the NHL level. Incredibly defensively responsible, Carlile exemplifies a lot of the qualities you'd expect in a shutdown defenseman:  a willingness to block shots, keeping your opponents to low-quality chances, and winning puck battles along the boards. While not offensively savvy, he did put up six goals and 16 points in 55 games with the Crunch last year, and even scored his first NHL goal in three games with the Lightning. He was put through waivers and sent down to Syracuse to start the season, but with injuries and suspensions impacting the big club, don't be surprised to see him early this season.

• Daniil Pylenkov - Another incredibly defensively responsible prospect in the Lightning system, Daniil Pylenkov, certainly isn't talked about the way that others in the system are. When you can be the number one defenseman on a team like Dynamo Moscow of the KHL, going on three seasons, the belief in your ceiling as a player is exponentially high. Pylenkov has already put up six points in nine games this season for Dynamo Moscow, looking to expand his offensive game. The biggest question for the Lightning with this prospect is going to be whether or not they can get him over to North America, seeing as he just resigned in the KHL for 2 years.

Tier 5 - Jayson Shaugabay, Maxim Groshev, Joe Connor, Dyllan Gill, Joona Saarelainen, Dominic James, Jack Harvey, Hagen Burrows

• Jayson Shaugabay - Jayson Shaugabay saw another step forward in his development during his first season in college hockey, putting up 12 goals and 26 points in 36 games with the University of Minnesota-Duluth. As a freshman, he was tasked with top-line responsibilities and even saw time on the power play, leading to his exceptional point production at UMD. His 12 goals were tied for second on the team, and 26 points were third on the team, both behind a player that we will get to in a little bit. Already with four points and two games during UMD's current season, Shaugabay will look to round out his defensive game before potentially signing his entry-level contract at the end of the season if all things go well.

• Maxim Groshev - A big faller in this year's pyramid, Maxim Groshev had a very difficult second year in the AHL. Groshev was limited to just 56 games and saw his production plummet to seven goals and 14 points, less than half of his production in the previous season. This decrease in production came with a switch to defenseman after the trade deadline. His energy is contagious, and his puck skills are unmatched in the Lightning’s system, but this is a prospect who has a lot of questions going forward.

• Joe Connor - Currently a sophomore at Northeastern University, Connor put up a respectable seven goals and 17 points in 37 games as a freshman, finding his way into the top six with time on special teams. Connor's biggest problem with his offensive game might be his play-driving, as his speed is a little lackluster despite his frame. He's back at Northeastern for another year, already with two goals and three points in just two games at the time of this writing.

• Dyllan Gill - Dyllan Gill spent time in both the AHL and QMJHL last season, getting a cup of coffee at the pro level before becoming the bona fide number one defenseman for the QMJHL champion Moncton Wildcats. A very solid two-way defenseman, you won't see the puck on his stick very often, but he provides an option for the Lightning down the line as someone who could turn into a reliable bottom pair piece. 

• Joona Saarelainen - Joona Saarelainen is currently in his third season with KalPa Kuopio of the SM-liiga. He looks to have a bigger role in their lineup after a depth opportunity on their Championship run last season. Still just 19 years old, the fact that Saarelainen is getting this experience of playing in professional hockey is massive for his development, even if his point production isn't off the charts. His two-way play has drawn a lot of praise, and his offensive game is the next step in his development as a future NHLer.

• Dominic James - The newest name on this entire list, and one that many Lightning fans probably know now, Dominic James, was signed as a college free agent this summer after not signing with the Chicago Blackhawks. As a senior at the University of Minnesota-Duluth, James led the Bulldogs in both goals and points as their captain, and was a college teammate with fellow Lightning prospect Jayson Shaugabay. Despite signing a week before preseason started, James nearly made the roster after a preseason performance that turned a lot of heads and got a lot of Lightning fans excited. If he has a good start to his time in the AHL, don't be surprised to see him called up to the main roster.

• Jack Harvey - Now a junior at Boston University, Jack Harvey took a jump in development during his sophomore season, putting up 11 goals and 27 points in 40 games as the Terriers made their way to the NCAA Championship game. While he didn't have the most spectacular season, he did put up two points in the regional semifinals and a goal in the National semifinal, cementing himself as a solid postseason performer. A good four-checker and a solid defender, Harvey will look to be a top producer this season before potentially signing his entry-level contract with the Lightning.

• Hagen Burrows - Another solid two-way prospect, Hagen Burroughs had a tough freshman season with the University of Denver, scoring a single goal and registering nine points in 39 games for the Pioneers. He is a very defensively responsible prospect, and one that sees the ice very well, but he's going to need a big jump in production during his sophomore season for the Lightning to take notice of him once again.

Tier 6 - Everyone else

• There are names for the Lightning system that, while not appearing on this pyramid, could end up seeing time in the NHL at some point. Guys like Grant Spada, Harrison Meneghin, Michael Miignosa, and Roman Luttsev, among others, have bright futures in hockey. Who knows, the next Nikita Kucherov may be stashed away in Europe or somewhere in the NCAA for the Lightning. 

That is it for this addition of the Lightning prospect pyramid. A huge thanks to The Athletic, Elite Prospects, and Future Bolts on Twitter for their excellent analysis and coverage of some of these prospects that will hopefully make an impact at the NHL level one day.

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