By Michael Wax
Who doesn't love prospects? The youth invasion in teams can take bad teams into good teams and good teams into being great with their speed, snarl, and overall electricity. The Lightning have had plenty of these in the past with names like Ross Colton and Nick Perbix immediately springing to mind as young prospects who helped the Lightning get to an extremely competitive position. This year should be no different, and I'm going to list the tears of prospects that I think could make an impact now and into the future. Before we start, I want to thank Steve Dangle for coming up with this idea back in 2016, except I'll be doing this with the Lightning and not the Leafs.
Now, let’s make something very clear: The Lightning’s prospect cabinet is… weak. But this is the price for winning. The Lightning haven’t had a good prospect pool since the early days of the Yzerman era, back when Jonathan Drouin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Anthony DeAngelo were topping league-wide prospect rankings. Even looking back at draft classes, only two first-rounders and two second-rounders since 2010 are still with the organization. That’s not to say the Lightning don’t have talent in their prospect pool, but high-end prospects like Shane Wright, Connor Bedard, and Logan Cooley aren’t in the Bolts’ system. That being said, here is the official Bolt Report Prospect Pyramid of 2023-24.
Tier 1: No one
As mentioned previously, the Lightning don’t have any high-end talent in their pool. Not every team does. Especially not any winning team. If the Lightning ever have a top-ranked prospect, they’re either not very good or in the middle of the pack. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen for a very long time.
Tier 2: Isaac Howard
By far the best prospect in Lightning’s system is the Iceman, Isaac Howard. Drafted in the first round of the 2022 NHL draft, Howard endeared fans with confidence through how he dressed and how he spoke. Originally scheduled to spend time at the University of Minnesota Duluth in 2022-23, Howard showed flashes with six goals and 11 assists for 17 points in 35 games but didn’t break out in the way that many projected him to. Now with Michigan State University, Howard will attempt to take the next step forward with the Spartans and keep his spot at the top of the Lightning prospect rankings.
Tier 3 - Dylan Duke, Ethan Gauthier, Nico Huuhtanen
Tier 3 has three prospects that many Lightning fans should be excited by for a variety of reasons. Let’s start with Dylan Duke.
Duke was drafted in the fourth round of the 2021 draft by the Lightning, and many saw the University of Michigan as a perfect place for him to continue his development before jumping into the Lightning’s system. In two years with Michigan, he has seen his game jump exponentially, following a 19-point performance in his freshman campaign with an 18-goal, 32-point season with the University of Michigan in 41 games last year/ Duke was certainly a key contributor to Michigan going to the frozen four in back-to-back seasons and will try and help the Wolverines win their first national championship in 1998 in his junior season.
Besides Isaac Howard., Ethan Gauthier is the highest draftee on this entire list. Drafted 37th overall by the Lightning in this past draft, Gauthier had put up 48 goals and 60 assists for 108 points in 131 games over two seasons with the Sherbrooke Phoenix of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League. Gauthier’s a fantastic skater, which honestly is a rarity in the Lightning drafting, and he’s got to be one of the smarter players in the lighting system. Gauthier will spend next season in the QMJHL with the Drummondville Voltigeurs, an opportunity for him to be more of a play driver, and quick thinker.
Over the past year, Niko Huuhtanen has been climbing up a lot of Lightning fan prospect rankings. Huuhtanen was the last player selected in the 2021 NHL draft. After spending a season with the Everett, silver tips of the WHL, where he scored 37 goals and 77 points in 65 regular season games and averaged two points per game in the playoffs, he spent this past season in Jukurit of the Finnish Liiga. In his first taste of professional hockey, Huuhtanen led the team in goals with 17 and finished third among all players in points with 30. Considering he did all of this in just 48 games, at the age of 19, it’s no surprise that he won Rookie of the Year for Liiga, joining other names like Patrik Laine, Juuse Saros, and Teuvo Teräväinen. Huuhtanen is going back to Jukurit this year for another season of development before hopefully signing his entry-level contract sometime this season.
Tier 4 - Hugo Alnefelt, Gage Goncalves, Jack Thompson, Jayson Shaugabay. Cole Koepke, Gabriel Fortier, Waltteri Merelä
For my money, Hugo Alnefelt is the most interesting prospect in the Lightning system. I say this because there’s really no place for him on the current Lightning team in the foreseeable future. Andrei Vasilevskiy has firmly locked himself into being the best goalie in the world, and the Lightning recently signed Joonas Johansen to a 2-year deal. An extra year of development is going to do Alnefelt some good though. Through 19 games last year, Alnefelt had a .927 save % and looked to be taking the reins as the starter in AHL Syracuse. His next 14 games were less than ideal, sporting a .866 save percentage as he battled injuries throughout the season and got replaced by Maxime Lagace as the Crunch starter in the playoffs. With Matt Tompins as the new vet in Syracuse, the net is firmly Alnefelt’s, and it will be interesting to see how he responds to the challenge.
Gage Goncalves could certainly make the Lightning at some point this year. In his second full season in Syracuse, Goncalves saw a dip in goals but a huge spike in assists, tallying 41 which was tied for 12th in the entire AHL. Goncalves has a tendency to go on hot and cold streaks, though he finished the 2022-23 season nicely with 17 points in the last 16 games. A good offensive forward, a good defensive forward, really all you can ask for in a player. Keep an eye out for him in 2023-24.
A 3rd round pick in the 2020 draft, Thompson will be entering his second season in Syracuse in 2023-24. Last year, he showed a lot of promise even on the third pair. Thompson is a very solid offensive defenseman and made significant strides with his defensive game as well.
Anytime you have a draftee that broke a record and passed T.J. Oshie in points, there’s reason for celebration. The Lightning took forward Jayson Shaugabay in the 4th round of this past draft, after topping Oshie’s record for points in a high school career and was named Minnesota's Mr. Hockey. The 18-year-old is extremely talented with the puck, and even fellow prospect Lucas Edmonds noted how good Shaugabay’s skills with the puck were in our interview with him. Shaugabay could use some work on his skating, perfect for a team like the Lightning that employs skating coach legend Barb Underhill. Shaugabay is committed to play at the University of Minnesota Duluth in 2024-25, but will spend this next season with the Green Bay Gamblers of the United States Hockey League, and hopes to be one of the league's top scorers in his second full season in the USHL.
Cole Koepke played in 17 games for the Lightning last year, and only put up one goal, but did show flashes of being a middle-six contributor during the later stages of his short stint with the team. Unfortunately, his production in the AHL took a real hit after being sent back down, getting less than half the points that he did in his first season in Syracuse. While he’s still young and has a lot of promise, a good season in Syracuse would do him wonders.
Gabriel Fortier is another guy who has spent some time on the main roster. During the 2021-22 season, Fortier played in 10 games with the Lightning and scored one goal. With such a competitive top nine, both Fortier and Koepke saw limited opportunities by both being on the fourth line during their time in Tampa. Fortier played in one game this past season with the Lightning and also saw his production dip while in Syracuse.
Waltteri Merelä is someone who Lightning fans probably should get to know a little bit more. He’s a little older than most on this list at 25 and was one of the first signings of the offseason for Tampa. Merelä had 15 goals and 33 points in 41 regular season games in Liiga and was a point-per-game in the playoffs for Tappara. He’s got international tournament and professional playoff experience, and while he’ll need some work on his skating and adjustment to North American ice, he should have some big opportunities to impress.
Tier 5 - Eamon Powell, Max Crozier, Jack Harvey, Daniil Pylenkov, Lucas Edmonds, Jack Finley
Eamon Powell is another player from the 2020 draft that could help the Lightning’s depleted defensive core. Heading into his senior season at Boston College, Powell saw increases in goals, assists, and points in his junior year and will hope to continue that again. Powell will be the captain of the Eagles heading into the 23-24 season, showing a huge level of maturity for such a young player. He’s decent at everything but doesn’t excel at one particular skill.
Another member of the Hockey East conference in 2022-23, Max Crozier finished off his collegiate career with big-time numbers on the back end and played in nine regular-season games with the Crunch at the end of last season. He’ll play in Syracuse once again this year, most likely on the 3rd pair.
Daniil Pylenkov has shown study improvements over the last 3 years in the KHL, and the trade from SKA St. Petersburg to Severstal Cherepovets last year served him in a major way in terms of his development, becoming the number one defenseman on Severstal. He's with Dynamo Moscow this year and will continue to improve his game as the number-one defenseman on the team once again. He could potentially be one of the better prospects to come over from that league should he sign with the Lightning and debut in North America in the next year.
Lucas Edmonds followed up a ridiculous season with the Kingston Frontenacs of the Ontario Hockey League by putting together a good but not great first season with the Crunch. Edmonds was someone who loved to score against the Utica Comets and had a bit of a difficult time scoring against everybody else. Edmonds has liked the way that his development has gone but knows that there are several things to work out, which he detailed here:
The last player I want to highlight is Jack Finley. Finley had a decent if not spectacular season with the Syracuse Crunch last year in his first real taste of professional hockey. At 6'6, he absolutely has the physical tools to be a great player, whether it's defensively with his reach to knock pucks away from the opponent or the ability to shield with his body as a puck carrier. He should be playing higher in the lineup this upcoming season, giving him more offensive zone time than he got last year and continuing his development in a big way.
Tier 6 - Everyone else
It’s not impossible for someone who hasn’t been listed to make an impact on the NHL roster. However, looking at the Lightning's recent draft history, if you weren’t named on the pyramid, your chances are probably slimmer than most. Guys like Jack Harvey, Ethan Hay, and Connor Kurth can definitely play NHL games for the Lightning. At some point, the question is whether or not they will make a big impact like other late-round picks have for the Lightning in their history.
That is it for this first-ever edition of the Lightning prospect pyramid. I again want to thank Steve Dangle for originating the idea back in 2016, and The Athletic, Elite Prospects, and Future Bolts on Twitter for their excellent coverage of some of these prospects.
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