By Michael Wax
We're three games into the second half of the season, and the Lightning are on a three-game winning streak. This article also comes after captain Steven Stamkos had a three-point performance against the Ducks. Honestly, that performance encapsulated what this article will try and explain.
It's never fun to critique someone who changed an entire franchise. The franchise leader in so many categories, including becoming the games played leader just a few short games ago. Stamkos has meant more to this franchise than can be put into words. That being said, among the laundry list of question marks that the fanbase has had, one has gone under the radar regarding why the Lightning are struggling: Steven Stamkos' five-on-five play has taken a massive decline from as far back as last year. While he isn't the only one on the team that has seen their pace decline from last year, Stamkos' on-ice numbers and spotlight as the Lightning's leader make this drop-off even more difficult to understand.
First of all, let's acknowledge the incredible longevity of Stamkos. For someone who has battled through as many injuries and challenging circumstances as he has, Stamkos has been at or around a point per game since 2016-17. That's unbelievable. Again, this year, it looks like more of the same on the surface, with 16 goals and 38 points in 40 games. However, beneath the surface, there's cause for concern and a need for the leader of the Bolts to turn his game around in the second half.
Currently, Stamkos' stats look like this when you separate by situation:
While Stamkos is only slightly behind pace to equal his total goals and even strength goals from last year, the discrepancy lies in his assist numbers. Stamkos elevated his playmaking game after his 2016-17 injury, hitting 50 assists four times and putting together a career-high of 64 in 2021-22. He might've been able to hit it more if it hadn't been for the COVID-19 pandemic and some injuries.
This year, Stamkos only has eight even-strength assists and only one game with multiple even-strength assists. He has 15 assists on the power play and is on pace to set a new career-high in power-play assists. Therein lies the problem. For the first time in his entire career, Stamkos is on pace to have more power-play assists than even strength assists.
Ok, so his production is down 5-on-5. Maybe that doesn't tell the whole story. Plenty of players have cold streaks where they're playing well, and the puck doesn't go in for them or their teammates. Well...
Many people understand the idea that the Lightning's bottom six needs to be more productive to contend. That's still true. But the same can indeed be said for the Lightning's captain.
Let's look away from offensive production for a second. Even though Stamkos' even-strength production has fallen, he's still putting up the points and contributing to the scoresheet. The problem has been defense.
Stamkos has never been a Selke nominee, nor is that his job. But defensively, Stamkos has been drowning this season...
55.68 expected goals against pace (highest of career)
.578 defensive point shares pace (lowest in a full season)
100.4 PDO (lowest since the 2012-13 season)
Lowest Relative Corsi For % relative (8.4%) and Relative Fenwick For % relative (7.8) since 2019-20
Here are some more examples provided by HockeyStatCards:
Well, maybe it's just the 2nd line. Not quite... Let's look at the player he's played the most with this season, Anthony Cirelli (224:00 overall time on ice), and compare their defensive impacts over the course of the season.
There was a point where Stamkos and Cirelli both struggled defensively in October and November, for sure. But Cirelli has seen serious strides in his defense since then, and Stamkos has only gotten worse.
Stamkos may have been trending downward last season, but the drop-off this year has been really tough.
How can Stamkos rebound? Well, the defensive game may just be what it is, but the offensive performance can certainly pick up. The biggest example might be his most successful season, when he put up a career-high 106 points. In the back half of that season (1/21/22-4/29/22), Stamkos put up an absurd 58 points in just 41 games. That put Stamkos at 1st in scoring on the Lightning and 10th in overall league scoring. Not only was he scoring, but he was also scoring at even strength: he put up 23 goals, with 15 coming at even strength. He also had 35 assists, 21 of which were at even strength. His goals were also crucial, as he tied with Connor McDavid with eight game-winning goals.
If Stamkos is going to be the Stamkos we all know and love and help this team on the ice, he's going to need another stretch like this.
Once again, thanks to Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, and Hockey State Cards for the data.
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