Kucherov’s Extension Could Become Julien BriseBois’ Career-Defining Contract

(Chris O'Meara/AP)

The UFA market has gone in a much bigger direction than anyone could’ve ever expected. Last summer, Kirill Kaprizov signed a $138 million contract. This summer, Cale Makar inked an even bigger one at a record-setting $163.2 million. Both are 8-year deals, but their AAVs of $17M and $20.4M, respectively, are eye-popping. Now, all eyes are on Nikita Kucherov and the Tampa Bay Lightning as everyone anticipates an astounding deal for the winger.

With five All-Star appearances, three Art Ross Trophies, two Ted Lindsay Awards, two Hart Memorial Trophies, and two Stanley Cups under his belt, Kucherov’s value has never been higher. There’s virtually no question he’s in for a pay raise when his current $9.5M AAV contract ends. The question now: how far is the Lightning – or more specifically, General Manager Julien BriseBois – willing to go to keep him under contract?

BriseBois and the Lightning have historically focused contracts on the team's bigger picture, rather than building around one individual player. Sure, the team has several big contracts. Still, none have surpassed the $10M mark, and they’ve given the team the flexibility it needs to keep building a Cup-caliber roster without too many major obstacles. With a new contract situation looming, how BriseBois proceeds from here may be the single most defining contract decision of his career – and it may set a precedent for how the Lightning handle business going forward.

Betting on Kucherov’s Elite Talent

Kucherov isn’t getting any younger, and with that, a decline in play is to be expected eventually. Take a look at Steven Stamkos. BriseBois was unwilling to match the contract Nashville gave him at his age despite his continued success on the team. While he is undoubtedly a future Hall of Fame player, Stamkos’ production dropped significantly after he left the Lightning. During his last season in Tampa, Stamkos put up 81 points. In his two previous seasons in Nashville, he put up only 53 and 66 points in 82 games each year. Signs of a decline had already emerged after his career-high 104-point season in 2021-22, so the writing was already on the wall for the captain.

That being said, Stamkos and Kucherov are two very different players at very different stages in their careers. The same concerns BriseBois had about Stamkos don’t seem to apply to Kucherov. He’s still a generational talent who isn’t showing any significant signs of decline. Kucherov had another incredible season with 130 points (44 goals, 86 assists) in 76 games, just shy of his career-high 144-point season in 2023-24. While Stamkos’ production started to slow by the end of his Lightning contract, Kucherov is still putting up elite numbers, and not just on the power play. He’s also a major playmaker who continues to give his linemates more scoring opportunities, while Stamkos tended to be the recipient of Kucherov’s setups.  

It seems in BriseBois’ best interest to bet on that talent succeeding for at least another few years, and that could ultimately shape the term of the contract if he proceeds. While there’s really no guarantee of any player’s continued success, signs point to Kucherov being a much safer bet for another few years than Stamkos was. If BriseBois is still on the fence, he may opt for a contract similar to Victor Hedman’s 4-year, $8M deal. Essentially, paying Kucherov what he’s asking for (likely above $10 million) for a shorter term may be a balance for BriseBois to keep him locked down without as much risk as an 8-year deal.

Can BriseBois Accommodate a Steep Asking Price?

As the salary cap continues to rise, so do the contracts. Makar’s astounding $163.2M contract may set the stage for players to start asking for pay. Other notable contracts include Jack Eichel’s $108M deal, Leon Draisaitl’s $112M contract, and the aforementioned $138M deal for Kaprizov. 

Most of these players are relatively on par with Kucherov skill-wise, with Eichel finishing the season with 90 points in 74 games and Draisaitl with 97 points in 65 games. Notably, however, Kaprizov had the lowest point production of the trio but inked a higher contract than both of them. He finished this past season with only 89 points in 78 games, a stark difference given the money he signed for.

While the Lightning have yet to surpass the $10M AAV mark, Kucherov will likely look for something in that ballpark. He may leave some money on the table to keep the cap open if playing in Tampa is important enough to him, but there’s no guarantee of that either, especially with contract numbers climbing.

That being said, BriseBois isn't typically one to put all the team’s eggs in one basket. He invests in his players, sure, but typically the younger, up-and-coming types, like 28-year-old Brandon Hagel, who’s on an 8-year, $52M deal he signed in 2023. Not to mention, BriseBois’ terms may also shape the team going forward. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy’s contract ends after the 2027-28 season, and if he’s still anywhere near his current level of skill, the Lightning will likely want to keep him. But if BriseBois pays too much for Kucherov and sacrifices future cap flexibility, it may affect his ability to keep some players on the roster. His deal with Kucherov will ripple across the team, and he will have to decide whether the team can accommodate a potentially steep contract.

BriseBois’ Decision Determines the Lightning’s Cup Window

After four consecutive first-round exits, the Lightning’s Cup window appears to be in jeopardy. While the Lightning have several dynamic players, losing Kucherov may steer the team toward a rebuild rather than a run if they can't find a way to fill the hole he’d leave in the lineup. Granted, his previous few playoff runs haven't been stellar, but he’s still a big part of why the team makes the postseason in the first place. He’s irreplaceable, and finding another player to take his spot would be no easy feat.

Whether BriseBois bites the bullet on a deal for Kucherov will show how much he values the winger as part of the Lightning’s future. If he chooses to extend, he’s taking a risk and making a major play to extend the Cup window. With Kucherov on the team, BriseBois puts the team in a much better spot for a run than if they try to do so without him. It’s not only a contract to re-sign, but a statement for the team. This contract may define precisely how Brisebois sees the roster's current and near-future state.

BriseBois Has a Huge Decision to Make

As the league watches for BriseBois’ next move, Kucherov’s next deal could set the precedent for both the general manager and the team’s competitive level going forward. Despite Kucherov’s age, he’s still playing at an extremely elite level. Still, it’s up to Brisebois to decide whether he’s willing to bet on him staying good as he gets older and whether the team still has the ability and flexibility to succeed if he inks a huge deal.