A Deep Dive Of the Lightning's Round 1 Loss.

(Photo via @TBLightning)

By Bolts Breakdown

The Tampa Bay Lightning & Montreal Canadiens gave hockey fans an electric seven-game series in Round 1 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Every game was a one-goal thriller, and the only two-goal lead of the entire series was held by Montreal for 5:37 seconds in game four – the Lightning came back to win that game 3-2.

Let’s take it game by game:

GAME ONE:

The Lightning played a strong first period, controlling possession & generating good chances to score. The Lightning held 61% of the expected goals in the first period at 5-on-5. Montreal was the first team to find the back of the net, though, capitalizing on a defensive zone turnover from Gage Goncalves, Darren Raddysh & JJ Moser.

Early in the second period, the Canadiens had their second goal taken off the board due to a high stick deflection. Moments later, the Lightning scored 2 goals in 29 seconds, the first on the PPG & the second on the succeeding shift. Those two goals gave the Lightning their first lead of the game.

It held till Conor Geekie took an offensive zone high-sticking penalty, which allowed Montreal to tie the game moments before the second period ended with a PPG.

In the third frame, special teams stole the show. Anthony Cirelli put the Canadiens back on the power play & Montreal scored again—another PPG from the same player, Juraj Slafkovsky. During the Lightning’s only power play opportunity of the third period, Brandon Hagel tied the game at 3-3, his second goal of the game.

In the closing seconds of the third period, Jake Guentzel swung at an air-bound puck in the offensive zone. He missed the puck & hit a Canadien player instead, sending Montreal back on the power play for the fifth chance of the game.

1:22 into the overtime frame, Montreal converted their power play as Juraj Slafkovsky completed his power play hat trick, ending the game.

Final score: 3-4 OT Canadiens.

Series score: 1-0 Canadiens

GAME TWO:

Game two was another spectacular match.

Brandon Hagel jump-started the Bolts by scoring the first goal of the game at the 8:40 mark. The goal seemed to carry significance for the Lightning who have built a recent trend of slow starts.

As was the story in game one, though, the Lightning committed a penalty & Montreal scored on their man-advantage. Their goal was an unfortunate bounce for the Bolts. After the Lightning killed nearly the full 2 minutes, Lane Hutson (MTL) fired a shot from the blueline that deflected off Erik Cernak (TBL) & into the net. As unlucky as it was, it still counted. PPG for Montreal. Tie game, 1-1.

Frankly, the Bolts were lucky to be tied. Montreal significantly outplayed Tampa Bay in the first, holding 72% of the expected goals. In the second period, that trend continued: Montreal held 62% of the expected goals. Montreal was faster, stronger, & smarter through 40 minutes, and a late second period goal rewarded them with a 2-1 lead heading into the third.

The Canadiens had won 9 straight games previously when entering the third period with the lead. In this contest, that stat changed. The Lightning came out flying, completely shifting the game’s narrative. Now, the Lightning were the faster, stronger, & smarter team. Through 40 minutes, Montreal had generated 21 scoring chances. In the third period, they generated only 2.

Nikita Kucherov eventually tied the game with less than 8 minutes remaining. That tie held through the rest of regulation despite the Lightning — again — having to kill a penalty in the closing seconds of the third period (as they did in game-one).

Overtime was a clinic for the Lightning. They generated 9 scoring chances off 17 shot attempts while holding Montreal without any scoring chances & only 2 shot attempts. It took 12:48, but eventually JJ Moser won the game for the Bolts, scoring his first career playoff goal as the overtime game-winner.

Final score: 3-2 OT Lightning

Series score: Tied 1-1

GAME THREE:

For the third consecutive game, the winning team scored the first goal, then allowed two goals to trail 2-1 before eventually tying it, and winning in overtime.

Unfortunately, Montreal was the team to score first in game three…the goal began with a Brayden Point (TBL) turnover in Montreal’s zone — unforced & unnecessary. The Canadiens carried the puck through the neutral zone & into the Lightning’s zone. After a couple smooth passes, Alexandre Texier (MTL) buried his scoring chance.

Brayden Point redeemed his error less than three minutes later. On the Lightning power play, Nikita Kucherov (TBL) took the puck off the wall and fed Jake Guentzel (TBL) in the corner. Guentzel passed the puck to Point who was ready in the slot for a one-timer into the top corner of the net—it was a gorgeous goal, a stereotypical Brayden-Point-goal. In the second frame, Brandon Hagel scored his fourth goal of the postseason to give the Lightning the fateful 2-1 lead.

Following Hagel’s goal, during the rest of the second period, the Lightning slowly ripped apart at the seams, allowing three breakaway chances for the Canadiens (Demidov, Caulfield, & Anderson) & taking three needless penalties. Thanks largely to Andrei Vasilevskiy, the Lightning prevented Montreal from scoring during those blunders, but they weren’t able to keep Montreal off the scoreboard entirely; Kirby Dach tied the game at 12:43. Heading into the third period, the score was again tied 2-2.

Both teams had 15 shot attempts & 4 scoring chances in the third; neither team scored.

In overtime, sustained offensive zone possession for Montreal allowed Lane Hutson (MTL) to take a shot from the blueline. Despite 4 Lightning players & 2 Canadiens players standing between Hutson & Vasilevskiy, the puck reached the net & sounded the goal horn before Vasilevskiy ever caught a glimpse.

Final score: 3-2 OT Canadiens.

Series score: 2-1 Canadiens

GAME FOUR:

Game four, to no one’s surprise, was a tight, back-and-forth battle, competitive until the final whistle.

Neither team scored in the first period, but many people would say the Lightning deserved at least one goal. According to NaturalStatTrick, the Lightning generated 13 scoring chances & 8 high-danger chances—and honestly, to the eye test, that may be selling it short! Jakob Dobes, the Canadiens goaltender, was magnificent in net, stopping several grade-A chances for the Bolts. Montreal generated their own solid opportunities at the other end of the ice, but a mixture of Andrei Vasilevskiy & solid defense held the Habs off the board.

In the second period, the referees called several questionable penalties. In total, 6 power play opportunities were awarded in the middle frame. After Bolduc (MTL) scored off a lucky, fluke bounce around the halfway point of the game, a slashing penalty was called on Jake Guentzel for tapping Dobes (MTL goalie) with his stick, looking for a rebound off his own shot. On Montreal’s ensuing power play, Cole Caulfield scored to give MTL a 2-0 lead, the first two-goal lead of the series.

That two-goal lead held for 5:37…Jake Guentzel kept the Bolts alive, tying the score with less than a minute remaining in the second period.

In the third stanza, the referees called more penalties. In the first minute, Oliver Kapanen (MTL) went to the box for high-sticking; Brandon Hagel (TBL) made him pay to tie the game, 2-2. The Lightning received two more power play chances in the third, and the Canadiens had one of their own. Ultimately, neither team was able to overcome their opponent’s penalty kill. But with five minutes left in the game, at 5-on-5, Nikita Kucherov took a one-timer slap shot from outside the faceoff circle that ricocheted off Brandon Hagel, who was standing in front of Dobes, and into the net.

The crowd in Montreal was silenced as the Habs trailed for the first time in the game.

Despite some intense pressure from the Canadiens in the closing minutes, the Lightning were able to stave off the tying goal to win the first game of the series without overtime.

Final score: 3-2 Lightning.

Series score: Tied 2-2.

GAME FIVE:

This was Montreal’s best game of the series & Tampa Bay’s worst game of the series. The Canadiens, right from the initial puck drop, were faster & stronger than the Lightning — the Canadiens seemed to want the victory more than the Lightning. They won most of the loose puck battles, won 66% of the faceoffs, & outhit the Lightning by 14. The game ended in a tight battle, but the Canadiens were in control throughout the contest; frankly, the Lightning were fortunate to even be in the game.

The action started in the opening minutes: the puck dropped, Montreal won the draw…then the Canadiens delivered three hits, blocked three shots, & had a takeaway before scoring three minutes into the game. A few minutes after that, Ryan McDonagh took a double-minor high-sticking penalty.

The Lightning did well to kill the penalty, but Montreal certainly gained momentum from the lengthy man-advantage. At the end of the first period, shot attempts were 9-7 in favor of Montreal; Montreal had 66% of the expected goals.

In the second period, the Lightning kept the game close, thanks mostly to Andrei Vasilevskiy who was superb in net. Dominic James tied the game 6:49 into the second period, but the Canadiens continued leaning on the Lightning. 11 seconds after James’ goal, Kirby Dach (MTL) scored to restore Montreal’s one-goal lead. The Lightning continued pressing, and Jake Guentzel eventually tied the score late in the second period.

Despite being outhustled & outworked for a majority of the game, the Lightning found themselves with a chance to take the lead early in the third period. On one of the Lightning’s most dangerous shifts of the game, Darren Raddysh hit a post & Nikita Kucherov fumbled the puck as he stood in front of an open-net opportunity. Moments later, the Canadiens took advantage of a lackadaisical Lightning shift change. Alexandre Texier found himself skating down the wing towards Vasilevskiy all alone. He fired a routine wrist-shot on net & Vasilevskiy made an extremely rare blunder, failing to cleanly catch the puck; the puck bounced out of his glove & into the net.

The Lightning never gave up. Despite their best efforts, they were unable to tie the game for the third time.

Final score: 3-2 Canadiens.

Series score: 3-2 Canadiens.

GAME SIX:

The Lightning, facing elimination, traveled to one of hockey’s greatest cities to face one of this season’s greatest teams in one of this sport’s greatest arenas. With all the pressure mounting on their shoulders, the Lightning pulled out an incredibly strong & gutsy performance to keep their season alive.

The score was 0-0 through 60 minutes of play, but it was an open, back-and-forth game through the entire contest. Each team had wonderful chances to score, but neither goalie allowed one to sneak past. It felt like the Lightning had control for most of the game, but if it weren’t for Andrei Vasilevskiy in net for the Bolts, the game could’ve easily gotten out of hand.

Shot attempts were 81-57 in favor of the Bolts in regulation. Additionally, the Lightning generated 21 high-danger chances while only allowing 6 to Montreal.

In overtime, Nikita Kucherov took a penalty, allowing Montreal a chance to eliminate the Lightning for good. But again, Andrei Vasilevskiy was superb. He made several incredible saves to keep the Bolts alive. Eventually, Brandon Hagel, Dominic James, & Gage Goncalves finished their opportunity to send the series back to Tampa Bay for game seven.

It was Gage Goncalves’ first career overtime playoff goal; he is only the third player in Lightning history to score an overtime goal to avoid elimination.

Final score: 1-0 OT Lightning

Series score: Tied 3-3

GAME SEVEN:

Do or die—game seven.

The Lightning welcomed the Canadiens into their barn for the final game of the first round. The first six games of this series had been spectacular, and the expectation held by many was that game seven would be another game filled with excitement.

That it was—that it was indeed.

The Canadiens got on the board first, scoring late in the first period when a bad deflection went off JJ Moser’s leg & into the net. Sometimes, bad puck luck like that can break a team, but not the Bolts. The Lightning turned that bounce into fuel for the final 40 minutes.

In the second period, the Lightning clobbered the Canadiens. Shot attempts in period two were 19-5 in favor of the Bolts. The Lightning had 12 shots on net & they allowed 0 from the Canadiens. They held 85% of the expected goals & scored the period’s only goal. It was a marvelous display of defensive structure & discipline. Nothing the Canadiens tried was able to penetrate the Lightning’s defense. Heading into the final frame, the score was 1-1, and the Lightning felt the momentum.

They continued to show well in the third period, too. They generated 4 more chances than Montreal, and they held 75% of the expected goals. Unfortunately, another unlucky bounce off the end boards, behind Vasilevskiy, came free for Alex Newhook (MTL) who threw the puck at the net. The puck bounced off Vasilevskiy’s back for a Montreal goal. 2-1 Canadiens. 9 minutes remaining.

From there, the Canadiens locked it down. The Lightning pushed & created some good looks, but they were unable to finish, unable to beat Montreal’s defense & their goalie. Despite some miraculous, desperate attempts to score, Montreal held strong.

According to most hockey experts, the Lightning played better than the Canadiens in game seven, but the final score is all that matters. To quote Jon Cooper, “sometimes you win the game & not the score.” That was the case tonight, and unfortunately, it ended the Lightning’s season.

Final score: 2-1 Canadiens.

Series score: 4-3 Canadiens

SERIES STATS:

Postseason Rankings (as of May 4th, 2026):

Power Play: 17.2% (7th)

Penalty Kill: 80.8% (12th)

FOW%: 44.4% (14th)

SF/GP: 28.0 (9th)

SA/GP: 22.3 (1st)

GF/GP: 2.14 (12th)

GA/GP: 2.29 (6th)

Hits/60: 30.72 (14th)

Blocked Shots/60: 13.33 (13th)

Stats Leaders:

Goals: TBL B. Hagel (6) || MTL J. Slafkovsky (3) 

Points: TBL J. Guentzel (8) || MTL N. Suzuki (6)

Shots: TBL N. Kucherov (31) || MTL J. Slafkovsky (18)

Hits: TBL Z. Girgensons (27) || MTL J. Anderson (33)

Blocks: TBL JJ Moser (14) || MTL M. Matheson (21)

P Drawn: TBL Y. Gourde (5)|| MTL A. Carrier (5)

P Taken: TBL B. Hagel (5) || MTL  A. Xhekaj (6)

FO Wins: TBL A. Cirelli (83) || MTL N. Suzuki (71)

Series Stats:

                        Lightning:            Canadiens:

PP%:              • 17.2%                  • 19.2%

PK%:               • 80.8%                 • 82.8%

5on5 GF:         • 9                        • 11

5on5 GA:        • 11                        • 9

FOW%:            • 44.4%                 • 55.6%

Shots/GP:      • 28.0                    • 22.3

SA/GP:           • 22.3                    • 28.0

Summary:

Ultimately, this was an extremely tight series between two incredible teams, and the Lightning fell just short. Perhaps the 44% faceoff percentage or the 17% power play was the reason the Lightning didn’t advance? Whatever the reason, the Lightning will look to address those areas & bolster their roster over the offseason.

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